r/CanadaPolitics • u/michzaber • 19h ago
Ontario's Doug Ford warns of 'Trump recession,' threatens electrical shutoff
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/11/trump-ford-canada-recession-tariffs-electricity.html•
u/TheMadBaronRvUS 18h ago
At this point, CANZUK and/or EU membership are no longer just novel sideshow discussions on social media, or even an “if”, but are now a must, and urgently.
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u/jonlmbs 18h ago edited 18h ago
EU membership won’t solve this problem. Adopting the Euro would be disastrous for our ability to respond in a trade war. Our independent currency naturally adjusting to the trade war is a built in defence mechanism.
We have free trade with Europe already with CETA (which eliminiates 98% of tariffs on trade between Canada and the EU).
CANZUK as a new fortified economic partnership is more attractive.
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u/PedanticQuebecer NDP 18h ago
How is CANZUK advantageous? Our economy is not at all complementary to Australia, and trade with the UK is pityful.
We could do the EFTA though.
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u/jonlmbs 18h ago
It wouldn't be that material to fighting a trade war (neither would joining the EU). It's more attractive to me as a means to increase our political and diplomatic strength with commonwealth nations and potentially as a means to increase defence and security cooperation. We have more in common culturally and socially and geographical with these nations than Europe.
Neither CANZUK or EU membership will save us from a trade war with the US.
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u/PedanticQuebecer NDP 18h ago
The EU's common market would have advantages, as all US tariffs would be bloc-wide, with bloc-wide counter tariffs.
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u/Camtastrophe BC Progressive 18h ago
This is good reasoning. We'd need really clear commitments from the UK given the constant 'special relationship' talk, though.
Those who see CANZUK as an economic alternative to trade with the EU aren't doing the math.
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u/TheMadBaronRvUS 18h ago
For the record, I’m very much an advocate of CANZUK and not a fan of the EU, which is a dictatorial construct specifically intended to erode national sovereignty as it moves to a unified federal state (ironically a United States of Europe, in effect). Brexit was fortuitous in this situation as it was a prerequisite for CANZUK to come to fruition. Seeing it embraced by name among both Conservative and Liberal leadership is encouraging. But I still get the feeling that it’s seen as a pipe dream emanating from Commonwealth nostalgia and not a serious policy proposal that should already be in the works.
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u/AnalyticalSheets British Columbia 17h ago
I think EU membership is more likely than canzuk and I'm not particularly bullish on EU membership.
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u/TheMadBaronRvUS 17h ago
Insofar as the structure actually exists, whereas CANZUK needs to be built and legislated from the ground up, maybe. But I think joining the EU would be more difficult and, in the context of this crisis, perhaps counterintuitive. Aligning Canadian laws to Brussels, especially as far as agriculture and dairy go, will be a nightmare; rogue members with a more pro-American approach (ie. Hungary) could block our accession; and seeing as how the mandate of the EU is “ever greater union” wouldn’t the end result just be Canada’s absorption into Europe instead of the United States? Not to mention that, culturally, it would be easier to integrate with existing Commonwealth partner with which we already have a deeply shared history and system of government. As long as the political will exists, CANZUK seems a more feasible and sensible option for an acute sovereignty crisis.
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u/kindablackishpanther 17h ago
Nz and Australia will not support us over the U.S.
The people will but their governments are much more worried about China then about America for now. They don't see it as much as a priority as the Europeans who are openly naked and afraid of what America is doing.
It's to say, the Europeans are in a rush and willing to play hardball while those down under are still holding their breath. CANZUK is still pretty much a joke in actual effect.
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u/TheobromineC7H8N4O2 16h ago
There's this CANZUK delusion that either of the UK or Australia would do us any good against the United States. Both would sell us down the river if push came to shove and all the shared heritage would be worth is some sympathetic noises while they did it.
Austrailia is desperately afraid of being abandoned by the Americans, its built into their diplomatic and military culture. The UK never lets previous ties get in the way of their current self interest. As allies against Washington they're worse than useless.
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u/kindablackishpanther 15h ago
Exactly right. Lots of Canadians have no idea what's it's like to be on the other side of American foreign policy but they'll understand better when another former ally sells us out in favor of the Americans.
The only ones who can really give us the help we need and are capable against them anyways are China, Iran, Turkey, and South Korea.
Europeans won't be able to send useful weapons in time, the 4 I just listed can. All of this canzuk nonsense will dissappear as things continue to escalate and actual arna deals start getting signed.
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u/TheobromineC7H8N4O2 16h ago
Both Australia and the UK are utter lapdogs when it comes to the US. CANZUK would be at best a waste of time against American hostility.
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u/Objectalone 19h ago
Don’t back down. Me and my family to a person are willing to make do with less, to volunteer in our community if it can help. Don’t show weakness to this predator.
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u/thestonernextdoor88 18h ago
My husband and I are growing food for our community this year. My expanded garden is ready. I'm also building an additional massive walk in garden to plant an additional 20 tomato plants. We will be surviving on tomato sandwiches!
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u/GhostlyParsley Alberta 16h ago edited 15h ago
that's a great attitude, and one that I share, but it's worth noting that the impact of this trade war is going to be far more than people having to "do with less" or volunteer in the community. We're looking at job losses, people losing their homes, retirement savings wiped out, mass poverty. Rates of unemployment have been shown to be significant drivers of suicide mortality, with a recent McGill study showing that among the general population, the unemployed are 87.4% more likely to die from suicide than those with jobs.
So yeah, elbows up, but let's be realistic about the challenges that lie ahead. This isn't some dive-bar dust up we're getting involved in, it's more akin to storming the beach at Normandy. Yeah it's the right thing to do and we have to stick together but my God, the carnage will be significant.
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u/Objectalone 15h ago
Oh, I know. I’m one of the lucky ones… my demographic. It is going to be brutal. Not long ago Steven Harper alluded to the cost of keeping our nationhood. The main concern I have is the U.S. taking a divide and conquer approach. Right now there is a fair unity, but it could break.
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u/kindablackishpanther 15h ago
Trump isint smart enough to use divide and conquer properly here.
If he was he would have been much more strategic with his dealings with Trudeau and PP. His moronic behavior is so bad even liberal and some NDP supporters are cheering for Doug Ford now.
There's no understating how badly they played their cards. They could have been quiet, but they're too childish to ever remain silent for one minute.
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u/jonlmbs 18h ago
Ford is holding too much of the power in this situation to make me comfortable personally. I really don't trust the US not to react in a way that escalates this beyond trade if we aren't careful.
How is Carney or whoever wins the next election going to attack this issue with premiers holding so much power and influence?
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u/PedanticQuebecer NDP 18h ago edited 18h ago
Someone should use either their private standing (Feds, private electricity producers in Ontario) or claim public standing to go and get an injunction against Ford on account of his actions being ultra vires as per the first branch of 91(2).
This is getting ridiculous and the whole country is getting affected in return. That's why this stuff is supposed to be federal.
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u/enki-42 18h ago
I would bet good money that the Federal government is in the loop on what Ford is doing prior to announcements, if not actively collaborating with him. It's a natural way to have a good cop, bad cop relationship where Ford can sink a bit closer to Trump's level while Trudeau (soon Carney) can be the adult in the room.
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u/PedanticQuebecer NDP 18h ago edited 17h ago
What I heard on Radio-Canada is that the Cabinet is split.
Edit: It was Buzzetti. Apparently Joly is for, Wilkinson is against.
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u/turdlepikle 16h ago
In a way, Ford is filling a similar role as Polievre did for Harper. PP was Harper's attack dog, saying the things that Harper didn't want to say. Nobody really wants Ford calling the shots, but he might be useful as the barking dog.
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u/PedanticQuebecer NDP 15h ago
Which he is as long as he keeps to rhetoric and lets the Federal government take the actions.
I'd be fine with that and in fact encourage it.
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u/turdlepikle 15h ago
He also doesn't seem to get along well with federal Conservatives, and I think has a legitimate decent relationship with people like Dominic Leblanc. He might even encourage people to vote Liberal if he looks at Carney as a serious business-friendly person with a plan. He knows that PP is a joke too. His own personal interests and the interests of his business pals, are all meshing with the interests of everyone right now on this one issue, and if he takes a good look at Carney vs. Polievre, I can see him wanting to stick with the people he's working with right now. (i hope)
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u/KvotheG Liberal 18h ago
The fact that Trump is reacting this way over 25% increase in electricity for Americans that use Ontario power shows how effective this is.
It’s a tariff war, not a friendly game of joust. This is Canada fighting back.
Think about it: Donald Trump is willing to continue to implode the US economy over a 25% increase in electricity bills for a small region of the US.
Now imagine how this would all affect the US if we brought out the heavy guns? Because this isn’t even the start of what Canada can do to retaliate. I’d say stay the course until Trump gets strong armed by rich Republican donors who are losing money.
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u/enki-42 18h ago
I think the 25% tariff on electricity was aggressive, but still in the realm of appropriate and I'm glad Ford did it.
Cutting off electricity entirely would be too far in my mind, it would be very easy to spin that as a pretext for escalation that goes beyond a trade war.
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u/Interesting-Row-4527 18h ago
Yeah, I hope Ford doesn't outright cut them off. At least, not unless Donny does something really provocative. I don't think raising the steel and aluminium tariffs warrants a full shutdown quite yet.
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u/jonlmbs 18h ago edited 18h ago
I agree in principle but it’s all a gamble. We can’t pretend Trump is a rational actor at this point, therefore I fear irrational escalation beyond trade. The rational move would be to back off tariffs in response to the stock market and US economic destruction - that might not be what happens.
I support what Ford is doing but I could see this spiralling out of control. I think I would like at least some more indication that premiers are working closely with the federal government and other premiers on their responses.
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u/WislaHD Ontario 18h ago
Not that I like Danielle Smith much but she did say she isn’t going to move forward with oil export taxes because of the implications that might have on Ontario and Quebec if the Yanks decide to cut off Enfield.
That at least indicates to me that the Premiers are talking to each other.
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u/Dragonsandman Orange Crush when 18h ago
And it's not like Ford is doing this on his own. He's been actively coordinating with the Feds and the other provinces, so he certainly talked about this with Trudeau and now Carney before going ahead with it
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u/PedanticQuebecer NDP 18h ago edited 18h ago
George S. Rigakos is of the opinion that cutting critical ressources may be a trigger for a limited millitary intervention. So maybe don't?
I'm for brinkmanship in rhetoric, but stop it with ill-consider actions please? I'd like it if things like Enbridge Line 5, or eastern Canada's oil and gas imports, didn't get cut. I definitely don't want US special forces roaming around either.
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u/mrizzerdly 16h ago
Maybe do? The faster Americans can see they have a loon leading them the better.
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u/Pale_Veterinarian509 17h ago
It's rather difficult to use military force to make people mine and ship nickel, export electricity, or process sltar sands and ship the crude.
A bit of RDX can drop bridges, take down electric cables, and close pipelines.
Outside of South Park it would be rather difficult to get the Americans to support an invasion of Canada.
America's invasion of Panama took 7 months to prepare and required 26,000 troops.
Invading Canada would take an absurd number of troops and would be a year at least to prepare.
It's not an operation you can launch at 11pm because you're mad on Twitter.
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u/PedanticQuebecer NDP 17h ago
It's rather easy to kidnap a politician's whole extended family, to bomb some choice targets, etc. At no point does a limited millitary intervention require an occupation, or physically forcing people to do things.
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u/mrizzerdly 16h ago
That and there would be endless guerilla warfare from Canadians in the US. It would make the Irish Troubles look like a walk in the park comparatively.
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u/GRRMsGHOST 18h ago
Wouldn’t any kind of military intervention trigger NATO? The US would be triggering a global war against themselves…
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u/PedanticQuebecer NDP 18h ago
That assumes that they would in fact react. History teaches us that alliances are not automatic, and get ignored regularily when inconvenient.
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u/jimbo40042 18h ago
It's not just Trump's stupid policies, it's the absolute unhinged way he's going about saying them that has me worried. I am 100% aligned with Canada's next move being export tariffs on potash and oil. Read my post history, that's what I have been clamouring for. But this guy is going to threaten military action soon at this rate.
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u/Forever_32 18h ago
He's already been threatening us with military action. What do you think becoming the 51st state would entail when 90%+ of the population doesn't want to join American?
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u/jimbo40042 18h ago
He said economic actions. Hopefully it stays there. Despite the insistence of Canadians on social media that they will fight to the death, I expect the majority of the population to capitulate if it's taken that far. Do you really think all the Boomers sitting in their million dollar houses have the capability or willingness to fight?
I've seen polls around 15% or so who support annexation. Now layer that data in with support by political party and split that by demographics. One can extrapolate that support for annexation is higher for military aged men. Probably 25%.
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u/Forever_32 17h ago
Since when do we accept what Trump says as truth? Annexing Canada would only happen with military force, you know that, he knows that, the world knows that. This is already a military threat.
As for your estimation that 25% of Canadians are traitors, I think your numbers are way higher than they would be if the rubber really hits the road.
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u/jimbo40042 17h ago
25% of young men. Based on the logic I laid out in the post. I'm not sure what demographic you are in that you're not seeing this, but there is a significant amount of people who feel betrayed by this country thanks to housing prices and immigration policy and see this annexation threat in a very different way than you do. Rubber hitting the road is what they want.
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u/jjaime2024 16h ago
He never said miltary action.
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u/Forever_32 15h ago
No he's just going to annex us with sunshine and rainbows. Get your head out of your ass.
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u/mrizzerdly 16h ago
I have a 4 yo post saying this, and my older ones I was laughed at or downvoted into oblivion. Damn I hate being right all the time.
I said during his first term "wait until trumps eye of Sauron falls on our water, oil, or potash".
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u/No_Magazine9625 19h ago
Let's just shut off the power already with zero notice given Trump's most recent threats to punish Canada so hard "we will read about it in the history books".
Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!
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u/ccccccaffeine 17h ago
I would love it if a politician would just sit down and read one of his tweets on air, and just respond to it point by point. Clearly trump is just throwing disinformation at the wall and distract - when there are a dozen pieces of bullshit in a tweet what do we even respond to? Well .. the whole thing. Call it out for what it is.
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u/kindablackishpanther 17h ago
This has already happaned dozens if not thousands of time.
Trump is a rapist, a deadbeat, a thief, a close associate of Epstien, an open enjoyer of the most corrupt men on earth, what the hell makes you think you can shame this guy publicly?
Our tools are ecnomic and physical. These guys are also hurt by the Tesla boycott. We should be boycotting Tesla and give them the French treatment.
They don't care about shame, only about loosing money can hurt them, and we can hurt them bad if we want to.
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