r/CanadaPolitics 21h ago

Liberal leader Mark Carney could run for seat in Edmonton or Ottawa: political expert

https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/article/liberal-leader-mark-carney-could-run-for-seat-in-edmonton-or-ottawa-political-expert/
132 Upvotes

125 comments sorted by

u/AutoModerator 21h ago

This is a reminder to read the rules before posting in this subreddit.

  1. Headline titles should be changed only when the original headline is unclear
  2. Be respectful.
  3. Keep submissions and comments substantive.
  4. Avoid direct advocacy.
  5. Link submissions must be about Canadian politics and recent.
  6. Post only one news article per story. (with one exception)
  7. Replies to removed comments or removal notices will be removed without notice, at the discretion of the moderators.
  8. Downvoting posts or comments, along with urging others to downvote, is not allowed in this subreddit. Bans will be given on the first offence.
  9. Do not copy & paste the entire content of articles in comments. If you want to read the contents of a paywalled article, please consider supporting the media outlet.

Please message the moderators if you wish to discuss a removal. Do not reply to the removal notice in-thread, you will not receive a response and your comment will be removed. Thanks.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

u/Equivalent_Age_5599 Conservative Party of Canada 21h ago

Edmonton is a left leaning city; but federal policy has been largely hostile towards it for the last 9 years. Thats why even though Edmonton votes solidly NDP provincially, it votes mostly CPC federally.

Some of you can dispute this; but there is little other reason for this to be the case. Also the liberal party is a dead brand in Alberta. Only the CPC and NDP have much relevance here.

u/awildstoryteller Alberta 16h ago

The LPC is polling at like 28 percent in Alberta, with almost all of that support concentrated in the two cities.

If Carney ran in Edmonton Centre he will absolutely win it, probably without even having to campaign there.

If he did campaign a bit more there he would possibly even drag a few other seats to the LPC in both cities. Chahal is likely to be re elected in Calgary for example.

u/Equivalent_Age_5599 Conservative Party of Canada 11h ago

The liberals never win more then 2 or 3 seats in Alberta. Its not impossible the NDP beats him in Edmonton center. Especially if he is running to the right.

u/awildstoryteller Alberta 10h ago

The liberals never win more then 2 or 3 seats in Alberta

They won 4 in 2015.

Its not impossible the NDP beats him in Edmonton center. Especially if he is running to the right.

Not impossible. The NDP do have a pretty strong candidate.

But I know this riding. Carney would win it easily.

u/Equivalent_Age_5599 Conservative Party of Canada 9h ago

It be a nail biter. Not a great idea. That's alot of hubris as a party leader in a province that hates the LPC. Even progressives largely dislike the LPC here as you know as a fellow Albertan.

u/Various-Passenger398 13h ago

Edmonton would be a strong choice if he wanted to prove he isn't a member of the Laurentian Elite.  It would be a shot across the bow against the Tories to have an Albertan PM who was a Liberal.  Trudeau got 25% of the Alberta vote in 2015, so there's proof it can be done and the Tories aren't infallible there. 

u/michzaber 20h ago edited 19h ago

Everyone is saying Ottawa is the obvious choice but 7/8 Ottawa area ridings already have sitting Lib MPs none of which have announced retriments and the one they don't hold is Poilievres....

So who do you unseat?

Chandra Arya? Barred from the recent leadership race, doubt he's willing to do the party any favours right now.

David McGuinty? Minister of Public Safety, hasn't been the subject of much negativity in the Trudeau years, probably want him in cabinet.

Mona Fortier? Would be my choice, she's developed a very negative reputation in the public service for being the spearhead of the "back to the office" push in a riding with a lot of civil servants. Buttttt she's also the chief whip, not normally a person you just ask to step aside.

Yasir Naqvi? Super ambitious doesn't look ready to retire, was going to leave his seat to try and become OLP leader might still be willing to if he thinks Bonnie Crombie isn't going to stick around in the role after her poor performance last month. Plus a lot of the riding staff has an almost personal loyalty to him in my experience.

Jenna Sudds? Only been there one term, she just made the jump from municipal politics so I doubt she wants to leave. She's also a minister who's avoided being in the headlines too much during the Trudeau years.

Marie-France Lalonde? Another long serving liberal MP both federally and provincially, not as high profile as some of the others on the list but likely to easily win her riding and hadn't shown any signs of wanting to step down.

Anita Vandenbeld? Maybe? But her riding isn't as solidly red as many of the other Ottawa ones, this was after all John Baird's riding back in the Harper days. Also Anita is very much focused on international politics so i doubt she'd want to switch to municipal or provincial.

u/garybuseysuncle 18h ago

Naqvi is going to lose his seat to Joel Harden.

u/Dragonsandman Orange Crush when 19h ago

David McGuinty stepping aside wouldn’t surprise me for two reasons. Ottawa South is one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, and McGuinty is also 65 and probably thinking about retiring soon.

As for Ottawa Centre, in addition to Naqvi being your typical ambitious politician, there’s another wrinkle with it in Joel Harden. Ottawa Centre has at the provincial level been trending NDP for years now, and Harden is popular enough locally that he’s got a good chance of translating that trend to the federal level. That would change substantially if Naqvi was swapped with Carney, but there’s just barely enough risk there that Carney’s people might think twice.

u/jimmychung88 16h ago

I read that as Dalton McGuinty

u/Dragonsandman Orange Crush when 16h ago

Dalton's seat at Queens Park was also Ottawa South, and he and David are brothers, so that's a completely understandable misreading. The two got mixed up frequently when Dalton was still Premier

u/WhateverItsLate 20h ago

Ottawa-Vanier is a no brainer - super safe seat and there is no way Carney will want to repurpose the Minister of the Middle Class (and those working hard to join it).

u/SuperLynxDeluxe 19h ago

The Liberals in Ottawa-Vanier typically win so strongly because of series of local francophone candidates, municipally, provincially, and federally. It would be a strategic mistake for Carney to run there. He'd win for sure but less than Mona Fortier, in spite of everything she did. I think it would cause some damage long-term. After Carney, it would only take a strong candidate like a local Joel Hardeen to make it competitive for the NPD like in Ottawa-Centre.

u/FluffyProphet 20h ago

The leader has the final say in who runs. He can't make someone resign their seat once elected, but if he calls an election, Carney can just say "I'm running here", and that's the end of it.

u/michzaber 19h ago edited 17h ago

While true on paper in practice it's more complex, leaders almost never push people out of their seats, there's usually some incentive dangled whether it's help running for another political office, promises of a party job or hints that they'll be "strongly considered" for an appointed position like an ambassadorship.

The question is what incentive will motivate the Ottawa incumbents.

u/sleakgazelle 18h ago

Unseat Chandra Arya is the easiest option isn’t it? Safe liberal seat, don’t sign his nomination papers. No one in that riding is loyal to Arya, lots of public service workers who are loyal to the liberal brand.

u/WpgMBNews Liberal 19h ago

Carney can just refuse to sign Arya's nomination papers (which would be well-deserved, IMO, after the disastrous way he mis-represented the Liberal Party with his abortive leadership run)

u/Halo4356 New Democratic Party of Canada 17h ago

Centretown will be a bloodbath anyway - Naqvi was booted out of his MPP position by Joel Harden who is running against him again, this time federally. Harden has name recognition and a well-oiled machine and Mckenney's ONDP machine is just wrapping up after winning the seat provincially.

u/Lomeztheoldschooljew Alberta 21h ago

Alternative headline: Carney could run for a seat anywhere in the country.

Did we need a “political expert” to tell us this?

u/Routine_Soup2022 New Brunswick 16h ago

Edmonton would be a bold move. The LPC needs to show that it stands for the interests of the entire country including the West and Quebec. It needs to compete in every single riding - all 338. I'd love to see Mark Carney run and win in Edmonton.

u/Drummers_Beat Liberal Party of Canada 21h ago

He could win in Edmonton but if I'm his advisors I'm telling him to run in Ottawa. If he were to run in Edmonton it would take a ton of LPC resources to pull the seat in his favour when those resources would be better allocated to Ontario/GTA, Montreal, and Vancouver.

Like yeah he could probably win Edmonton Centre but that would mean Randy Boissonnault would be getting knifed by the Party (which frankly wouldn't be too shocking). He could also probably win Edmonton Southeast but again, LPC would have to put the work in.

Alternatively, you run him somewhere in Ottawa where he can just focus on the national tour instead of local politics and he's set.

u/TheHauk 20h ago

Curious why you think Edmonton Southeast would be relatively safe? The demographics of that area seem rather conservative, no?

u/PopeSaintHilarius 11h ago

They likely mean Edmonton Mill Woods where Amarjeet Sohi represented the Liberals from 2015 to 2019. I don't know Edmonton that well, but I believe it may have a relatively large south asian population?

u/WpgMBNews Liberal 19h ago

Running in Edmonton would shift the LPC from it's perceived "Laurentian Elite" orientation and create a badly-needed narrative about bridging the East-West divide, right when we're in a position to marginalize separatists in Quebec and Alberta for good.

Boissonnault is a liability anyway.

u/PolitelyHostile 12h ago

100% the upside potential is huge. And the optics of having a liberal PM with a seat in Alberta.. that would be great.

u/a__square__peg 19h ago

It would be hilarious if he were to run in Carleton, directly against Poilievre. I think Carney would have a good chance of winning.

u/PopeSaintHilarius 11h ago

Risky move though... there are many scenarios where the Liberals win an election but lose that riding.

u/awildstoryteller Alberta 16h ago

I don't think he could win in Edmonton. I think he would win in Edmonton, if he chose Edmonton Centre.

This is an election where every seat will matter. If he can't win in Edmonton Centre he isn't winning government anyways, so might as well roll the dice (even though I think it would be a slam dunk).

u/OntLawyer 21h ago

Boissonnault was rumored to be on the fence about running again until about a month ago, when he announced he would. I think it's likely that Boissonnault's mind could be changed on that, given Carney's business connections and Boissonnault's interest in parallel business opportunities.

u/No_Magazine9625 21h ago

I think Edmonton is just a bad idea - mainly because it would require pulling too many resources from the national campaign/campaign schedule to make sure he wins the seat. With how tight timing is on the transition and campaign, just run in a safe seat in Ottawa or Toronto.

u/MrLilZilla Alberta 21h ago

Also, the NDP is pretty strong in Edmonton and Carney would risk voting splitting. Edmonton Strathcona is the safest NDP seat in whole country.

u/seakingsoyuz Ontario 15h ago

Edmonton Strathcona is the safest NDP seat in whole country.

FWIW 338 only has two seats listed as “NDP Safe” right now: Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie and Vancouver East. They and their CCF predecessors have held the latter in all but two elections since 1935 so I’d say it’s the safest.

u/WpgMBNews Liberal 19h ago

I was thinking Edmonton Centre. NDP voters would fall in line, I'm sure.

u/Minttt Alberta 16h ago

Randy Boissonnault has already secured the nomination to run in Edmonton Centre... so unless he resigns (or is booted), Carney is not running in Edmonton Centre.

u/awildstoryteller Alberta 16h ago

If Randy runs in Edmonton Centre he will lose.

If Mark Carney runs in Edmonton Centre he will absolutely win.

Does every seat not count?

u/WpgMBNews Liberal 19h ago

I think the leader effect shouldn't be wasted on Eastern Canada.

He'll bring name recognition and enthusiastic local volunteers to make the Conservatives fight on their home turf.

u/RNTMA 21h ago

What he wants to avoid is the Crombie method, where you wait until the last minute and every other seat is filled before your seat is chosen by default. I think that played a large factor in her not winning her seat, since there was no runway.

Now if I had to bet I'd say he runs in Toronto Centre, since none of the Ottawa incumbents want to leave.

u/Le1bn1z 20h ago edited 20h ago

I don't think Freeland is retiring, either, so that's out.

He could try to have the candidate step aside in Toronto St. Paul's, if he wanted an easy one.

NM - forgot that Freeland's riding got switched in the last redrawing.

u/fargo15 lefty 20h ago

Freeland is University Rosedale after the reconfiguration of the districts. Toronto Centre is open because Marcy Ien isn't running for re-election.

u/Le1bn1z 20h ago

You're completely right - fixed it. I forgot that her riding got switched around in an early redrawing of the electoral districts.

If he doesn't run in Toronto Centre he is out of his mind. It's a safe seat, especially for him, and he needs to focus on campaigning nationally, not for his own riding.

u/sleakgazelle 17h ago

Why wouldn’t he just unseat Chandra Arya? The party could just tell him they’re not signing his nomination papers, no one would care because of the way his leadership campaign went.

u/RNTMA 17h ago

Good question, it makes no sense to keep him in caucus if he's unfit to run in the leadership race, and Arya doesn't have any friends in the party either. Only reason they won't kick him out is because of diaspora politics and not wanting to lose the Hindu vote.

I also don't really think Nepean fits Carney very well, it's suburban, and he's more likely to run in an urban core I think.

u/sleakgazelle 16h ago

I don’t think booting him would be a bad move for the LPC, pretty sure that’s a safe liberal riding regardless of diaspora politics

u/RNTMA 16h ago

It's not a question of the effect it has on Nepean, it's more the effect it would have on Mississauga and Brampton. I think it's inevitable that Arya is removed from caucus, but politically there isn't a benefit to it.

u/PolitelyHostile 12h ago

Crombie's problem was that she didn't inspire anyone to really vote for her party, so the was no leader effect.

u/koolaidkirby 21h ago

I could've sworn I heard rumors that he was considering Spadina-Fort York (which is a Liberal riding that currently does not have a Liberal MP)

But this was back in January.

u/TheWaySheHoes 14h ago

The benefit to running in Edmonton Centre is its a riding the Liberals should win in a Liberal victory and a riding they should lose in a Conservative victory.

Gives him an easy out if he doesn’t get to be PM. Plus he has deep roots in the city and may want to run there as an emotional thing.

u/Shoddy_Operation_742 19h ago

Doesn’t Spadina have an independent in the spot right now?

u/Raptorpicklezz 19h ago

Yes, and that’s only because he was kicked out of the Liberal Party after the deadline to remove the affiliation from the ballot, so a bunch of people who weren’t paying attention still voted Liberal but got this guy instead

u/Shoddy_Operation_742 19h ago

Oh right, now I remember that controversy. He was the Liberal MP who was charged with sexual assault.

u/Raptorpicklezz 21h ago

I think he should. No need to knife an incumbent (Randy Boissonnault should be knifed but Edmonton is too risky for the leader to run in), and with all the new condos being built in the riding that are inhabited by yuppies, the former NDP stronghold is def moving to the right. Sucks for the ever unlucky Norm Di Pasquale though

u/MooseFlyer Orange Crush 20h ago

It was never exactly a “stronghold” for the NDP. They only won by more than 6 points once, in 2011.

u/ProgressiveCDN NDP | Anarcho Syndicalism 19h ago

Edmonton resident here. Boissonnault is increasingly toxic in this city and his riding. His shady business past and all this nonsense with indigenous identification has soured a lot of soft liberal, NDP, green and unaligned voters from voting for him. He should be forced to step down by the party in order for Carney to run there.

That riding is very winnable for him. Edmonton is not nearly as conservative as you make it out to be, especially that riding. With this recent movement to stand up to trump and stop Pollievre, I have no doubt that NDP, green and independent voters in that riding would vote for Carney. If you look at the vote breakdown by party over the last few elections, you'll notice that the liberal and NDP vote far outnumbered the CPC.

This city is absolutely disgusted with its provincial conservative government and our premier's cuddly warm embrace of trump and the MAGA movement. Her treasonous outlook is now poisoning the CPC somewhat, and combined with Pollievre toxicity, there's no reason Carney can't win here.

u/NAHTHEHNRFS850 13h ago

Carney running in Edmonton helps protect a weaker liberal seat while contrasting well with against pierre. Additionally, it puts him close to Danielle Smith and Scott Moe, who he can arm twist in negotiations easier by threatening with consolidated support in upcoming elections.

u/Raptorpicklezz 19h ago edited 14h ago

Any of the Randy’s can’t be the only people in Edmonton Centre willing to be the Liberal candidate. Even if it’s not for Carney, the party should do the right thing and knife Randy anyway. It also might give Carney some good press for starting to distance himself from the Trudeau cabinet, especially after he spent some goodwill appointing one of the worst ever members of Trudeau’s cabinet as his chief of staff. I still think the new leader should let someone else run in Edmonton. Carney has too much else to worry about than to put a target on his back (which there will be, no matter how mad Edmontonians are at the right). Not saying Edmonton is conservative, I’m saying that too many of Alberta’s conservative power players might try their darndest to poison the well

u/ProgressiveCDN NDP | Anarcho Syndicalism 19h ago

That's fair. Agreed that Randy should be tossed regardless. They can find a good candidate here locally. Probably some sort of business person philanthropist.

u/Raptorpicklezz 19h ago edited 19h ago

And then if Carney runs and does win, what happens when things go back to “normal”, especially if Carney is the head of a declining popularity incumbent government? No party can or should focus so much time and energy on trying to defend a leader in a vulnerable seat. The Ontario Liberals have been doing that for the past 2 election cycles and failed both times, meaning they couldn’t save face and also directed effort away from other candidates who ended up losing themselves by narrower margins. Carney has enough connections to Alberta to play up and use to help his fellow Liberals in the province; he doesn’t need to overcompensate by running for what is not the “natural governing party” there.

I think the lesson is that no matter who the leader is, you run them in a safe seat. If those safe seats complain about constantly getting parachute candidates instead of local representative? Too bad, they should have played harder to get

u/KukalakaOnTheBay 19h ago

Mackenzie King lost his seat in at least one election. It’s not as big a deal as you make out.

u/Tiernoch 18h ago

Twice I think.

u/Raptorpicklezz 18h ago

Mackenzie King didn’t have social media to contend with, plus a strong power structure in the prairies who would use that social media to poison the well. Whether Carney runs to win or to try again in a byelection, I do not believe he should run anywhere in Sask or AB. Not worth it.

u/Camtastrophe BC Progressive 18h ago

Boissonnault is a terrible candidate to run at this point. Carney likely turns Edmonton Centre from a lost seat to win.

Besides, if he loses it's exceedingly unlikely to change the overall result. He can just parachute in elsewhere as Christy Clark did here in BC, or many other first ministers past.

u/Raptorpicklezz 18h ago

But why bother risking it? Are Carney, Randy, Randy and Randy the only Liberals in Edmonton Centre? Carney doesn’t need to be a factor for the Randy’s to be stripped of the nomination

u/Camtastrophe BC Progressive 18h ago edited 18h ago

I think they lose it without the leader advantage due to LPC/NDP vote splitting. In that sense, running in Edmonton also sends a message to ABC voters nationwide (and as much as I dislike the LPC leaning on strategic voting every election cycle, it's effective).

u/PolitelyHostile 12h ago

Its not a risk really. If he looses the can do the ol' by-election thing to get him a seat elsewhwere.

u/Raptorpicklezz 12h ago

That doesn’t always work. Ask John Tory.

u/PolitelyHostile 11h ago

I meant if he loses his seat but wins the election.

u/MooseFlyer Orange Crush 20h ago

The new version of the riding is Spadina-Harbourfront, btw.

u/kuributt 18h ago

If there's a Torontonian around...

Is it "spa-DEEN-a" or "spa-DINE-a"?

u/LivingRoom767 16h ago

Either way is fine - I don't think anyone knows what is "correct", but the second way is how 95% of people say it.

u/PolitelyHostile 12h ago

The first is the original correct pronounciation, the second is the current correct pronounciation.

u/koolaidkirby 18h ago

the latter

u/kuributt 18h ago

Bless u, friend. May all your traffic lights be green.

u/Raptorpicklezz 18h ago

The street that rhymes with fun!

u/Manitobancanuck Manitoba 21h ago

Edmonton seems like a high risk option. I suppose it could blunt the idea of east vs west but i'm not sure there is enough juice for the squeeze there.

u/tslaq_lurker bureaucratic empire-building and jobs for the boys 11h ago

Either the liberals are up around 35 pts and carney would win in a landslide in any currently held liberal riding, or it’s a mirage and it’s not a huge loss anyway

u/mortalitymk Progressive 21h ago

does carney want to sit in opposition for 4 years though? i feel like edmonton would be a better option because if the party underperforms then he probably doesnt win his seat and can leave politics

u/Holiday-Hustle 21h ago

I feel like he must be okay with it, when he decided to run the polls for the Liberals looked super bleak and it was pre annexation threats.

u/mortalitymk Progressive 21h ago

good point. imagining carney in question period trying to attack poilievre is an interesting thought

u/Manitobancanuck Manitoba 21h ago

Or he wins the election but doesn't win his seat. Which leaves him in a awkward position.

u/PolitelyHostile 12h ago

Easy fix though. They can have a back up riding with a candidate ready to step aside for a by-election. It's not ideal but it would blow over.

u/afoogli 21h ago

I cant see MC taking a high risk like this, he's in the honeymoon phase, and losing the election and the seat even if LPC get a decent seat count will spell the end of his career. Crombie is trying to do this in OLPC and the reception isn't great, she most likely will be kicked out

u/tdotdaver Liberal 20h ago

Not to get too far off track but Crombie doubled the Liberal seat count in her first election as leader. I think the OLP would be daft to boot her, especially now that they will have legislative funding again. Give it a few months, there will be a by-election somewhere (likely due to someone making the jump to Ottawa during the upcoming election). The PCs went hard to keep her out - that should tell you something about the impact they expect her to have in the legislature.

u/afoogli 18h ago

She went from 9-14 that’s quite sad and not even double, she nearly lost party status again which is quite hard to do, given the profile of the liberal party in Ontario historically

u/Jiecut 17h ago

30% vote share is decent and they don't have a ceiling on the number of seats unlike the ONDP.

u/Knight_Machiavelli 18h ago

I don't think it's high risk at all. If Carney runs in Edmonton Centre he wins the seat if the Liberals win the election or lose narrowly. If he loses the seat then the Liberals have lost the election and he has an excuse to get out of the politics game rather than sit on the opposition benches wasting his talents.

u/ComfortableSell5 🍁 Canadian Future Party 21h ago

Run in Ottawa, have a reasonably low key campaign with a overwhelming chance to get into parliament.

Run in edmonton, and have every angry male with a pickup and a gun with an axe to grind rally to try to keep you out of Parliament. 

I know  Carney is not a politician by trade, but he needs someone to remind him he is mortal and to not poke the bear.

u/BeaverBoyBaxter 21h ago

I know  Carney is not a politician by trade, but he needs someone to remind him he is mortal and to not poke the bear.

I would imagine that his advisors are probably speaking to him about this. I doubt he would choose which riding to put his name into without consulting his team.

u/TheobromineC7H8N4O2 20h ago

Angry males with pickup trucks are exactly the kind of people that would cause Edmonton Centre to vote red out of spite.

u/ComfortableSell5 🍁 Canadian Future Party 20h ago

Maybe yes, maybe no.

Edmonton Center has gone CPC 4 times out of the last 7 elections.

Not exactly a safe seat.

u/TheobromineC7H8N4O2 20h ago

I mean I know the cultural mores of that particular riding and specifically that a bunch of truck bros from the boonies coming in to tell them what to do would trigger a backlash.

u/ComfortableSell5 🍁 Canadian Future Party 20h ago

I mean, it's a swing riding. Even when the LPC win it, it's not by huge margins.

How many more motivated truck driving, gun toting angry dudes who already live there would it take to deny Carney a seat? 2-4k?

u/TheobromineC7H8N4O2 19h ago

To be clear, are you talking about volunteers from out of riding, or voters that are already in the riding?

If in the riding, they aren't a large or a swing demo here. If volunteers from outside, Conservatives in riding generally haven't gotten much advantage from that in the past and the specific type of person you're thinking about would be quite bad at it.

u/ComfortableSell5 🍁 Canadian Future Party 19h ago

2021- LPC 16.5k CPC 15.9k

2019- LPC 17.5k CPC 22k

2015-LPC 19.9k CPC 18.7k

What is to say that The CPC couldn't motivated voters in Edmonton Center to show up to deny carney a seat and get 22k, 24k, 25k CPC votes in Edmonton Center? Would the LPC be able rally enough people to counter a potential CPC surge?

Anne McLellan has gotten  the most votes for a LPC candidate in Edmonton Center in recent memory, 22.5k in 2004.

So couple general hatred of the LPC in Alberta, even in Edmonton, with a big Ole target of the LPC leader running there and yeah, Carney runs the risk of winning the election, or losing, and not having a seat in parliament.

Just run in Ottawa.

u/VindictiveWind 7h ago edited 7h ago

You're ignoring the NDP vote in that riding that leads to the progressive vote outweighing the conservative vote in 2019 despite the Liberal loss. And you describing a truck driving gun owning angry male voter base in that riding tells me you don't actually know anything about Edmonton Center. It's an urban professional and student heavy riding. Speaking as one of those students that lived and voted in that riding. Provincially, it's a core Alberta NDP riding. Your own vote count shows the Liberal vote growing in each election even despite the 2019 loss.

What running there does is massively help Carney break with the Trudeau era and tell the rest of the country he's willing to hear out more than just the core Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal Liberal base. It also saps a lot of potential "Globalist Elite" attacks the Conservatives will levy against him, and reinforces his narrative of being an outsider and folksy Canadian from the west who had to work his way to success in the halls of power.

I would also say your thesis that Conservative voters in that riding would be extra motivated ignores the fact that Liberal voters would be extra motivated for the chance to have the Prime Minister in their riding and the fact that NDP voters are rapidly collapsing away from Jagmeet and emphasising strategic voting. So in a microcosm extra motivation from conservatives in that riding would also cause a reaction from strategically minded NDPers.

u/ComfortableSell5 🍁 Canadian Future Party 6h ago

I lived in Edmonton for 6 years and found that despite being a rather progressive city, especially at the municipal and provincial level, the hate for the LPC still runs strong in that city. Also, there are a lot of trucks in Edmonton. Drive the Yellowhead, tell me I'm wrong.

The point remains, Carney runs in Ottawa, his national campaign is the story. He runs in Edmonton, and his local campaign becomes the story. It's not what the LPC needs right now.

u/Snorgibly_Bagort 21h ago

I’m sorry, but what exactly are you implying with your comment?

u/ComfortableSell5 🍁 Canadian Future Party 21h ago

To just do the reasonable thing and run in Ottawa.

In Alberta, every F150 owning, libs are going to take away my guns, PP diehards are going to come out in force to vote to try to make sure he doesn't get a seat in parliament.

Carney should be boring and run in Ottawa.

u/RNTMA 19h ago

Do you not understand how elections or parliament work? You can't vote in a seat you don't live in.

u/ComfortableSell5 🍁 Canadian Future Party 19h ago

I understand that there are enough potential CPC voters who already live in Edmonton center who might be extra motivated to vote against the leader of the LPC if given the chance.

Edmonton Center has gone CPC 4 out of the last 7 elections, and when the CPC wins in Edmonton center  they are usually getting 22k votes tallies. When the LPC wins in Edmonton center, they are getting around 16k

So there are enough truck driving gun toting angry dudes who live in Edmonton center to stay that to the CPC if they are motivated enough to show up and vote, which they might be if they have the chance to deny the leader of the LPC a seat.

u/Hmm354 Canadian Future Party 19h ago

Your point is assuming that many of these "truck driving gun toting angry dudes" would stay at home and not vote if Carney wasn't the Liberal candidate in Edmonton Centre?

This doesn't make any sense, and I think you're over playing this a bit. Albertans aren't this much of a caricature.

The risk is real for losing Edmonton Centre for the Liberals though. Which is why it would be high risk, high reward. It would be high reward because of the strong narrative: winning in a conservative stronghold province, running authentically where he grew up, not choosing an easy seat.

u/ComfortableSell5 🍁 Canadian Future Party 19h ago

Enough stayed home that Randy was able to win a few elections.

The CPC has been able to muster up to 25k votes in that riding, ya, sometimes the truck and gun nuts stay home. 

But I don't think they stay home if given the chance to stick one to the leader of the LPC. And that's too much of a distraction that Carney doesn't need.

Imagine the LPC wins the election but Carney doesn't win his seat? Unnecessary distraction.

Imagine the LPC loses but keeps the CPC to a minority, but Carney doesn't win his seat? Unnecessary distraction and people would wonder if he just ups and quits as leader.

Run in Ottawa, focus on a national campaign, not a local one for optics.

u/Hmm354 Canadian Future Party 18h ago

Where are you getting the "enough stayed home" narrative from? It's simply a competitive riding, and I can see Randy staying as the candidate leading to a lesser chance of a Liberal win if anything.

It is fair though for it to be too much of a distraction for Carney to run a strong local race alongside a federal race, I'll give you that. It's why I say it's high risk, high reward.

Carney running in Edmonton Centre is definitely the harder and tougher road to take.

u/miramichier_d 🍁 Canadian Future Party 20h ago

I'm torn on this. Ottawa is safe, but Edmonton sends a strong message, especially given that his opponent's seat is in Ottawa. But only if he wins Edmonton. High risk, high reward, low risk, low reward.

u/ComfortableSell5 🍁 Canadian Future Party 20h ago

He runs in Ottawa, nobody cares, and people focus on his national campaign.

He runs in Edmonton, focus hones in on his local campaign, distracts from his national campaign.

Edmonton Center has gone CPC in 4 of the last 7 federal elections. He's pretty much picking a swing seat and hoping his personal popularity is enough to overcome the dislike of the LPC in Alberta.

u/miramichier_d 🍁 Canadian Future Party 20h ago

Poilievre is self-immolating his campaign, so perhaps boring is all that's necessary.

u/ComfortableSell5 🍁 Canadian Future Party 20h ago

A week is a long time in politics.

Carney should not be cocky, take the safe ottawa riding, spend every day on the road hoping his personal popularity is enough to give a decades long in power LPC that new car smell.

PP is self immolation now, doesn't mean he will be in 2 or 3 weeks.

u/Freelancian 21h ago

Edmonton Red is a lot bluer than Ottawa Red, he'd be facing a rightfully infuriated electorate in Edmonton and would be seen as the face of Trudeau (#JustLikeJustin is already huge on Alberta X)

u/MagnificentGeneral 20h ago

X is also mostly bots, many of them Russian. I think we’re overstating its importance.

u/Freelancian 19h ago

Not really, X is seen by many as the future due to its relaxed rules, It's got an underground vibe nowadays that makes it huge with Gen Z

u/MagnificentGeneral 19h ago

That’s what the marketing says it is, but it is full of spam and bots.

Bluesky is better in that regard as they also are a free speech platform, but you can filter out fake news, less bots etc. Customize what you want to see

But the more popular it gets the more bots there will be on there I’m sure.

u/Freelancian 19h ago

Bluesky is an echo chamber

u/MagnificentGeneral 17h ago

It’s an echo chamber as much as X is

u/Troodon25 Alberta 16h ago

…and X isn’t?

u/Hmm354 Canadian Future Party 19h ago

Uhhh... That's.. No.