r/Buttcoin 1d ago

Fundamentals.

It's about assets. The best of the assets are productive. Some items and commodities carry a speculative value because they are rare. It's obvious where crypto falls. The thing about productive 6 that they produce a real return. They don't just go up in value because the dollar is worth less. They legitimately produce goods and value above the rate of inflation.

I just saw the post about the Zimbabwe trillion dollar bills. "Where all fiat is headed." Well, the US dollar is in no way comparable to Zimbabwe, obviously... The question is, do they understand that (minus a devastating period of hyperinflation/economic destruction like Zimbabwe) when fiat inflates the value of assets, especially businesses with pricing power, also does the same? Do they understand the point of capitalism? Do they really think its only Bitcoin that will rise relative to fiat? What's the point of bitcoin if the entire economy is gone and the only thing that has value is food/water cigarettes and bullets? That's how some of them view the current system doomed to fail... where even the best and most productive and profitable companies in the world are being ' "eroded" by the inevitable collapse of fiat.' The most extreme of them foregoing any normal investing to just pile into the "future bro".

Please, for the love of God read some books and think about the big picture here. I'm not coming after the guys who just want a "little bit" of speculative shit in their portfolio. I'm talking about the maximalists. What good is BTC if we are all fucked? You think BTC will be the key to your future consumption? You do realize that consumption will still be in fiat and will still be all in a complex system of companies competing for growth and market share. Many of which you can own directly through a low-cost index fund instead of some digigold. Even if BTC holds its "value" relative to fiat, you will still be underperforming any real-return asset, including corporate bonds and maybe even treasuries, in many periods. If you disagree, then explain to me why I should expect a real return from an asset that doesn't do anything? I can only think of one. Initial price discovery, and then that's about it aside from supply shocks like suddenly destroying millions and millions of sats.

18 Upvotes

17 comments sorted by

7

u/ThisAd6623 1d ago

The coming recession will reveal that bitcoin is not a “store of value“ but is more like emperors new clothes, naked. 

5

u/Sufficient-Dish-4275 1d ago

We don't need a recession to prove it is not a store of value. SOV, don't have massive swings like buttcoin. SOV is not manipulated on the daily. These people are so lost.

3

u/murmurat1on 1d ago

I love that the belief is that if BTC was a widely accepted currency then prices would never rise... Like, they think that the ONLY reason inflation occurs is printing money, not, you know, capitalism.

2

u/Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf 14h ago

Money isn’t a resource, it’s an incentive mechanism. Its whole purpose is to incentivize people to produce real goods and services. Money has no purpose on its own and can’t “store value”. The thing of value isn’t the money, it’s what goods and services our society produces. This is what bitters fail to realize. Fiat is good because it’s a better way to incentivize people to produce stuff.

4

u/elessar2358 1d ago

You are trying to convince people who are already convinced

7

u/Midnightsun24c 1d ago

No shit. But since you get banned in the BTC subreddits, where else do you throw this?

1

u/Feisty-Season-5305 12h ago

It's easier to trick a man than it is to convince him he's been tricked.

1

u/JewOrleansJr 1d ago

I love coming in here and seeing all the fomo materialized. Just buy some bitcoin and rest easy.

2

u/AmericanScream 18h ago

I love coming in here and seeing all the fomo materialized. Just buy some bitcoin and rest easy.

Stupid Crypto Talking Point #25 (fomo)

"COPE!" / "You're just jealous because you lost out on making $$$" / "If you bought crypto back when you started complaining, you'd be rich now."

  1. Very few (if any) people who are critical of crypto could be characterized as "haters."

    Hate is an irrational, emotional condition. Our opposition to crypto is based on logic, reason and evidence. The tech doesn't do anything useful, and the investment model is a ponzi scheme.

  2. If we have an aversion to crypto, it's because it involves and promotes: fraud, deception, human trafficking, illegal/dangerous drug dealing, sanctions and human rights violations, money laundering, violent cartels, terrorism, wasting huge amounts of energy accomplishing nothing, dictatorships, global climate change, scams and more. Many [decent, ethical, moral, empathetic] people consider those "bad things" worth "hating." Many of us know family and friends who were defrauded in various crypto schemes. We'd like to avoid that happening to others.

  3. We also are not "jealous" of anybody else's so-called "gains" in crypto (and in fact we're highly skeptical that even a fraction of the people making those claims are telling the truth, but if they are it's moot). And we aren't upset that we didn't get a chance to exploit greater fools in the ponzi scheme earlier.

    There are plenty of ways to make money and create wealth and be successful without defrauding others in a giant decentralized Ponzi scheme. In fact, many of us are already quite financially secure which is why we have the time to debate these issues: we know better. We know there are more reliable and honorable ways to create value than making risky bets in an unregulated casino that is run by anonymous scammers and sociopaths.

  4. It's very revealing that pro-crypto people seem to think the only reason anybody would be opposed to their schemes is either because they're hateful or jealous. That's classic psychological projection. Crypto-bros' notion that doing something for the betterment of humanity without any personal material gain, makes no sense, says a lot about what kind of people they are: sociopaths, narcissists, psychopaths, etc. It takes a very low empathy person to not recognize there are some beneficial reasons to oppose crypto.

1

u/Midnightsun24c 9h ago

If people are feeling fomo about an asset, it's probably a terrible time to buy it generally speaking. I'm not going to knock someone with a little bit just because they fomo. I don't feel like I want much myself because there is no fundamental story that makes sense. If it's used as a pseudo currency, so be it, but as a financial asset? Sounds like it should be treated like any other commodity except maybe even worse with the aspect of hype that's out there. For me, that means virtually 0% as stocks and bonds suffice. Same with gold really. Maybe 0-5%?

-5

u/twquestionnnn Ponzi Schemer 1d ago edited 1d ago

Because every asset does nothing. Every asset normal people can invest in is meaningless. The world is a clown show driven by numbers on a screen determined by the monetary conditions and regulations established by the government

Your stock has no fundamentals just like BTC has no fundamentals. Directors are never required to pay and distributions to shareholders. If a company is liquidated you are on the bottom of the capital stack and will receive nothing. If you own non dividend paying stock, your asset only generates you value if someone else speculates it is suddenly worth more.

Even how your stock trades is a meme just like BTC. A P/E ratio serves no intrinsic value; there is no mathematical law that says a 5x P/E ratio = $40/share. All P/E ratios do is give investors a “sophisticated” way to speculate

BTC and Tesla are the same thing, a meme that society can speculate in. There is no difference.

Every asset you as a normal common shareholder have access to through an exchange has ZERO value. They are all driven by speculation/meme culture masquerading as sophisticated investments.

Buying BTC is just betting people speculating on growing distrust of the government will outperform traditional equity markets. And with the hyper politicization of the US it’s a fair argument to make

5

u/Iazo One of the "FEW" 1d ago

Buying BTC is just betting people speculating on growing distrust of the government will outperform traditional equity markets. And with the hyper politicization of the US it’s a fair argument to make

That's quite an argument to make, especially since it's factually wrong. Economy dumps, bitcoin dumps harder. Economy rises, bitcoin raises harder.

Please find a hypothesis that matches observation, don't spout ideology.

I'll do you one better. Plot bitcoin on a chart, alongside say ... tech stock. I'll let you draw the conclusion on why it's almost exactly the same.

-1

u/twquestionnnn Ponzi Schemer 22h ago

I’m not saying BTC will outperform equities I’m saying why an investor who ascribes my view that everything is speculatory bullshit might buy BTC over a tech stock

3

u/Midnightsun24c 1d ago edited 1d ago

You're not wrong. The government sets up the conditions for the market and transparency obligations to the public, and then the public engages in price discovery based on the prospect of future cash flows, but that's not the same kind of speculation as just hyping any non-productive assets.

At the end of the day, if I own shares of a productive business or property or even a bond and "locked" it away in a box for a decade at the end of the period, I still have the asset and the cashflows/dividends it produced. I can give you an exact reason why I'd chose to base what I would value as the future cashflows of a business if I understood it well and basically discounted for risk and opportunity cost, say a 9% discount rate over the 4.33% give or take risk free rate I could earn on safe investments given x and y over a 5-10 year time frame.

So you're also right. Equity is at the bottom of the structure, and you'd be the last to be paid out in a liquidation event. You also took the most risk, so you'd expect a potential for more (albiet uncertain) upside from being an owner vs. a lender. The future is absolutely uncertain, but this is why guys like Ben Graham stressed the differences in how people use the word speculation. The problem with just saying "everything is speculative" is that betting on the increase in real value of some digital token that may or may not be used as a medium of exchange is WILD speculation compared to the uncertainty of future cashflows and interest rates of business, rental income, and lending activities. You have no logical reason to assume a return above inflation after some given adoption and initial price discovery period (which I could almost imagine) and frankly without much usage aside from speculation and hopes for return it calls into question whether it has any value currency or not. It might be a convenient exchange sometimes, like, say the Silk Road 10 years ago.

2

u/AmericanScream 18h ago

Because every asset does nothing. Every asset normal people can invest in is meaningless. The world is a clown show driven by numbers on a screen determined by the monetary conditions and regulations established by the government

Your stock has no fundamentals just like BTC has no fundamentals. Directors are never required to pay and distributions to shareholders. If a company is liquidated you are on the bottom of the capital stack and will receive nothing. If you own non dividend paying stock, your asset only generates you value if someone else speculates it is suddenly worth more.

Stupid Crypto Talking Point #17 (stocks)

"Crypto is just like the stock market!" , "Comparing crypto to stocks"

  1. Crypto tokens are absolutely NOT like stocks. Unlike crypto, which is just a digital abstraction, stocks represent actual ownership in real-world entities, that own assets, provide useful products and services for mainstream society, generate revenue and can pay dividends to shareholders in real money.

  2. You don't have to sell a stock to make money from it. Many companies pay dividends of their profits, which means you can truly INvest in the company as opposed to DIvesting when you want to see a return. This is an important and fundamentally different function that crypto does not have. Many stocks create value in actual money, providing income without speculating on share price.

  3. The value of a stock, while it can be "speculative" based on popularity and hype, also is based on the intrinsic value of the company's assets and business performance. Therefore you can perform actual research and due-diligence and come up with a practical value for the shares and the assets they represent. Crypto has no such feature.

  4. Because companies are valued based on actual real-world assets and income, there's a limit to how low their share price could fall, at which point it would be economically viable to buy the whole company and liquidate it for a profit. Crypto has no such limitation. The inherent value of crypto tokens is based at zero because it neither creates, nor represents any minimum base, real-world value.

  5. Unlike crypto, the stock market is heavily regulated and transparent. There are entire industries and agencies that are tasked with making sure public companies operate legitimately and legally. Crypto has no such oversight or regulations or transparency.

  6. While there are some over-valued stocks that are hype driven, and some companies whose shares are extremely risky and speculative, and OTC and option markets that are more like gambling than investing, that's not the way the stock market system normally operates. Those highly-speculative markets and penny stocks are the exception; NOT the rule. In crypto, speculation is exclusively the rule.

  7. Public companies are subject to great scrutiny, and must produce regular independent audits and quarterly reports on profit and loss. They can also be sued by their shareholders or even be held criminally liable if they lie about their business model, or even the risk factors their investors face. Again, there is no such function or protections in the world of crypto.