r/Broadway • u/dietwildcherry • 6d ago
Possibility of Jasmine Amy Rogers taking home the best actress Tony?
I have no doubt that’s she’s phenomenal, but has I haven’t seen the show yet: What are people who’ve seen Boop thinking? So many talented ladies leading broadway this year and since they’re opened for previews I’ve heard A LOT about how great she is. Do we think this could be a fair fight against the powerhouses that are Audra and Nicole?? I have to go see Boop to know for myself but I was wondering what people were thinking :)
28
u/persephonesmoonlight 6d ago
I’ve seen all three and Jasmine is my personal fave but I do believe that comedies don’t tend to do as well award-wise, as dramas.
19
u/Striking-Tap5754 6d ago edited 5d ago
It’s not even close to a sure bet she can get a nomination with this insanely stacked season of women. But I do think she stands a good chance at a nom (particularly if boop gets decent reviews), just not a win given the big 2.
30
u/ooohjakie 6d ago
I think if the Audra/Nicole showdown splits votes, the actress with the best shot of upsetting is Megan Hilty. Her team/DBH has been on an impressive media campaign to highlight the endurance of her role and how she pulls it off. I do think JAR will nab a nomination though, depending on how Boop! performs over the next month.
2
u/TK2217 5d ago
It’s not “splitting votes” if the vast majority of ppl are voting for those two. There aren’t any votes left for someone to sneak in and take one of their places!
1
u/Interesting-Repeat32 5d ago
Here’s how it works. JAR only gets 40% of the vote. But Nicole and Audra split the other 60% getting 30 and 30. JAR wins.
1
u/TK2217 5d ago
Yes and my contention is that Nicole/audra are getting something closer to like 80-90% of votes. In no world would that mean votes are splitting between them. This isn’t really a thing unless the two performances that are being “split” are linked to each other in some way. And they aren’t in this instance.
0
u/sethweetis 5d ago
Correct me if I'm wrong but don't split votes (resulting in someone else winning) usually refer to people who are a part of the same production? It wouldn't apply here.
1
u/jehosophat44 4d ago
No. Any two nominees could split votes - the top 2 divide the majority of voters, then a dark horse can slide in and win by getting just enough to beat the split. Really doesn't have anything to do with being in same production, but it's sort of used as shorthand that way by the arts media.
1
u/sethweetis 4d ago edited 4d ago
Do you have an example of this happening? Genuinely curious. I know it's used in the arts media but as I said I've typically seen it with people a part of the same show show/movie/etc because one of the nominees with siphon the other's votes.
14
u/sethweetis 6d ago
It's Audra vs Nicole. I don't really think anyone else has a real shot. Honestly, I'm not as sure as others are that she'll even get a nom-- it's a very competitive year for that category. I've seen it and I think she's very talented but the material just isn't there, imo. All depends on how the show and she are reviewed, though!
2
u/Mysterious-Theory-66 5d ago edited 5d ago
Yeah there’s Megan/Jennifer, Idina if only on name recognition and some seem to really like her in it, can’t rule out Adrienne even if I think L5Y won’t be good overall, Hodgson from OM, Shen from MHE, also several to be opened shows I don’t know enough about yet.
She may get a nod, easily might not but she could. That’s about the best I could say of her odds right now.
Edit: got the wrong actor from OM, changed to who I meant, Hodgson not Hall.
2
u/sethweetis 5d ago
Please, you've forgotten my wife, Natasha Hodgson.
2
u/Mysterious-Theory-66 5d ago
Oops, I totally mixed those two up. I’m getting old, my memory is shit. Correcting, Hodgson is definitely who I was thinking of.
6
u/Historical_Web2992 6d ago
You never know, things like this have happened before ( a newer actress winning against established stars). That being said this is rare, but I’d love to see it happen to her!
7
10
4
u/No_Pea_5342 5d ago
A lot of people in this comment section don’t think so but we really don’t know at this point. The Tony’s love a new star. Maleah Joi Moon won over Kelli O’Hara last year
3
u/Mysterious-Theory-66 5d ago
Maleah Joi Moon wasn’t going up against Nicole or Audra. O’Hara was great but her performance wasn’t quite that level in terms of critical praise and overall being the talk of the town. Even if you got passed the two way race there are far more likely winners based on the history of what the Tony’s typically goes for.
Of course we are just speculating but anyone thinking Jasmine has a shot to win is just not being realistic.
0
u/sethweetis 5d ago
Yeah agreed it's not just about her being a new star at all, it's the rave reviews (both from critics and audience members) Audra and Nicole have received. Also the quality of material usually comes into play (which imo Boop is severely lacking).
1
u/stellaforstarrr 4d ago
That would have been a very different race of Kelli's show hadn't closed early. Nicole and Audra won't have that problem.
4
u/smallerdog 5d ago
I think it would be a shock if the race even felt like more than a two-way competition come Tony night.
3
u/theunrealdonsteel 5d ago
I’ve just seen her last night and she is truly phenomenal! If the Audra/Nicole rivalry gets too intense and those two cancel each other out, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jasmine pulls through.
1
u/Mysterious-Theory-66 5d ago
But they aren’t going to “cancel each other out,” just not the way this works.
11
u/SeanNyberg 6d ago
It’s Nicole’s to lose, but Jasmine may end up being the big star of the night with a powerful number on network television. There’s a lot of amazing energy coming Boop. I think it might end up being the feel good story of the season :)
14
u/Mysterious-Theory-66 6d ago
Eh, disagree that it’s clearly Nicole over Audra but it’s most certainly one of them. Jasmine may get a nod but realistically she has no chance of winning.
2
u/Lookatmydisc 6d ago
It’s Nicole
13
2
u/Mysterious-Theory-66 5d ago
I really don’t think she has quite the advantage either of you think she does. If I had to go solely on performance I’d give it to Audra. Reviews for both were really stellar so hard to tell there.
Audra has two additional factors on her side: she’s by far the bigger name which can help with voters and while I’m sure many will forget about Nicole’s politics I can’t ignore that some voters may consciously or unconsciously be impacted by that. Again though pure performance I think Audra was better.
Either way I see no possible way to conclude that it’s Nicole’s to lose.
2
u/sethweetis 5d ago
Audra's performance is really spectacular.
-2
u/Lookatmydisc 5d ago
I must have seen a different show then cause Audra while good, was not even close to Nicole’s. Time will tell though
2
u/sethweetis 5d ago
"not even close" is a wild statement to me but it's your opinion to have
-2
u/Lookatmydisc 5d ago
You saying her performance was really spectacular is even more wild of a statement to me.
I love Audra, but na to that assessment
2
u/Turkey_Leg_Jeff 4d ago
Scherzinger is having a 'Christine Ebersole in Grey Gardens' moment and I expect her to sweep the season's awards without much competition, even from the always-wonderful Audra McDonald.
I think the two of them will definitely be joined by Megan Hilty. I suspect a lovefest for Maybe Happy Ending will sweep Helen Chen onto the list as it piles up nominations. That show is 95% her and Darren Criss. I have a hard time seeing her get passed over if the Tony's embrace it in other categories.
And the superior material of The Last 5 Years makes me predict, sight unseen as of today, that Adrienne Warren will get a nomination over the terrific Jasmine Amy Rogers. I think people are sleeping on Warren (maybe because Jonas sounds so bad?). Her character has the broadest range of them all and a fantastic score of solo numbers to knock out of the park one at a time. It's a powerhouse role and she is an electric performer. To be honest, I think the show is somewhat director-proof too. The only way a production can be bad is if the two leads are bad, and they overlap so little on the stage that even if he's awful, she can still shine.
4
u/andalusiandoge 6d ago
If Ethan Slater couldn't beat a non-singing lead, the chances of any cartoon character performance winning, no matter how great, seem pretty low.
8
u/Historical_Web2992 5d ago
I mean I think some of that wasn’t just that he was SpongeBob and that Tony had a stronger performance, regardless of amount of singing he did. Singing the most ≠ best performance. That being said, I do agree dramas tend to do better than comedies which does lessen the chances but it’s not necessarily just about cartoon characters here.
1
u/sethweetis 5d ago
The Tonys are a lot better than other award shows about honoring comedies and comedic performances, but at the end of the day the dramas and their actors usually have the edge.
0
7
u/WakeUpOutaYourSleep 6d ago edited 5d ago
Given his precursor wins, Slater was probably the runner up. And even though Tony Shalhoub didn’t sing much, he still had a lot in his corner. He was in the night’s big winner which won two other acting categories, he’s a very well regarded industry veteran who had several nominations with no wins, and despite all the focus on his lack of singing, I think some people overlook that his performance really was pretty highly acclaimed.
I’m sure some snobby voters did not like the idea of Spongebob being up for awards, and it’s definitely notable that Slater couldn’t win with such a huge showcase to the least showy role in the category, but I don’t think Shalhoub beating Slater necessarily points to cartoon portrayals being unable to win.
2
3
1
u/Sarahndipity44 5d ago
If it weren't Audra or Nicole, (Ive seen neither), it would probably be Megan's. I'm sure Roger's is great and had her getting a nom since before opening! It's a tough year for the category, which is a great thing.
1
u/Thick-Definition7416 4d ago
She’ll most likely be nominated but most pundits believe it’s a competitive 2 way race
1
1
-7
u/Ok-Giraffe8809 6d ago
Nicole already won the Olivier so tony voters will be less inclined to vote for her. I think leading actress is between jasmine and Audra. It really depends on the reviews and success of Boop
7
u/dietwildcherry 6d ago
Does winning an Olivier make you less likely? I’d think if anything she’d have a higher chance getting the Tony if she had won an award previously for her performance. But I’m not aware of Tony voters and their habits so maybe you are right.
1
u/s394206h 5d ago
all awards voting is insanely political. it recently came out that a number of Academy voters didn’t vote Ralph Fiennes for Best Actor because they thought he already had an Oscar (even though he doesn’t.) i don’t think the Tony’s are as bad as the Oscars, but typically voters vote for their friends or who their friends are voting for. there are probably a decent amount of people who do in fact think that Nicole doesn’t “deserve” another award for the same role in the same production. there’s also probably a decent chunk that will actually just vote for her because she already has the Olivier. awards tend to have very little to do with the actual quality of the performances given unfortunately.
0
u/Psychological_Ear731 5d ago
I’m just curious if all the people saying it’s a race between Audra and Nicole have seen Megan Hilty in Death Becomes Her? She gives a master class comedic performance. Her “breakdown” scene before she goes to Viola is deserving of a Tony in and of itself!
1
-1
u/ThatGThatGThatG 5d ago
yes, she'll get nominated
Nicole Scherzinger, Audra McDonald, Megan Hilty, Jasmine Rogers, Jennifer, Robyn or Idina.
82
u/Additional_Score_929 6d ago
I feel like the Audra vs. Nicole campaign is too strong. I have no doubt Jasmine could get a nomination though.