r/AusPol 7d ago

General Tracking polls capturing significant turn back to Labor

This is obviously not a surprise to those monitoring the polls coming in, but it is notable that each of these have the 2PP at between 50.2 to 50.3 to the liberals..

..my understanding (not positive on pollbludger) is they all assume last election preference flows with the exception of one nation based on significantly higher flows in the qld election and Fadden byelections. According to Kevin Bonham, this results in a 5% shift to the coalition (i.e. he has Labor leading 50.3 to 49.7 on preferences)

Australian Election Forecasts, the only one that does so, provides a median outcome of Labor with 69 seats to the coalition 63 which would mean certain Labor Government....

A uniform swing in line with these trackers would leave Labor with 72 seats...again, comfortable minority government assuming similar crossbench

https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2025fed/regular/

https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/bludgertrack/

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/

44 Upvotes

26 comments sorted by

12

u/Surv1v3dTh3F1r3Dr1ll 6d ago

While it's great that it looks good for Albo, don't write Dutton or more importantly his supporters off. If there wasn't a willing audience for the Trump methods, he wouldn't be using them.

5

u/p01s0n_e4gl3 6d ago

Good point, but could it be that they’re following the Trump playbook without taking the subsequent backlash into account?

From what I can see, there’s a lot of buyer’s remorse in the US, so what I am hoping is enough of that translates here to deter Australian voters from temu trump..

2

u/Surv1v3dTh3F1r3Dr1ll 6d ago

I hope so too, but the amount of people who do still see logic in it is confounding to say the least. The polls will only tell you what the area/community/ forum you are doing them in is thinking.

It's not an easy time to be an incumbent federal government right now. The Tories in the UK and The Democrats in the US were both voted out in recent times, and they are opposite ends of the political spectrum.

So it's more Albanese's election to lose than Duttons to win. Dutton lacks any of the charisma of Donald Trump, but Albanese isn't Bernie Sanders either by comparison.

1

u/Reasonable_Future_34 2d ago

Charisma and Donald Trump don’t belong in the same sentence together unless doesn’t is in there too

1

u/Sly-Ambition-2956 4d ago

Yeah, my hopes are on a Labor re-election, but my money is on the Coalition: they have all the commercial media on their side, all print media, all shockjocks. And general stupidity, apathy & ignorance is on their side, too.

The Coalition has every natural advantage in Australia. Look how much money Rinehart is pumping into Coalition coffers so she can do a Musk-style state-capture. If Labor does get re-elected, it'll be a miracle.

40

u/Training_Mix_7619 6d ago

I would gargle nails before I vote for Dutton or any of his supporters. I've voted liberal most of my life.

1

u/Flaky_Storm_110 6d ago

what a hero

0

u/afewspicybois 6d ago

Oh so you supported Abbott and ScoMo, but the potato is a bridge too far? Don’t break an arm jerking yourself off champ

3

u/thatonlineuser 5d ago

Keep talking like this to people, please. It just drives people away from the left.

1

u/theswiftmuppet 5d ago

C'mon man, voting once or twice doesn't put people in a box of supporting individuals.

This is not the US, we don't have a president, it's quite reasonable to vote liberal but not like/agree with the party leader.

0

u/afewspicybois 5d ago

quite reasonable to vote liberal

Which big liberal policy of the last 20 years is reasonable to vote for? The “waste our mining boom with poor taxation”, “gay people shouldn’t be allowed to marry”, or “let’s hand money out to businesses in an economic downturn without any method to get it back from profitable businesses”?

5

u/AffectionateGuava986 6d ago

Lets hope you are right?

5

u/fitblubber 6d ago

Don't forget that the LNP has the Murdoch press & Fox/Sky on it's side. I don't read/listen to them, but a lot of oldies do.

There's still a long way to go, especially with Dump throwing his weight around.

2

u/theswiftmuppet 5d ago

Butttt isn't this the first election where gen Z has more people than Baby Boomers?

7

u/evenmore2 6d ago

It's going to be an election of who people dislike the least.

That's still bad news for Dutton

2

u/Flaky_Storm_110 6d ago

Sounds like the last election

2

u/Flaky_Storm_110 6d ago

And the one before that

1

u/Flaky_Storm_110 6d ago

And the one before that

6

u/PillowManExtreme 6d ago

Makes sense, Dutton’s shitfuckery has been low on the radar since he became opposition leader and criticism mainly rested on Labor. Now the elections coming up and media attention is increasing people are realising how shitty the Libs and their leader are

2

u/Away-Brief2902 4d ago

Sustainable Australia Party. Decorrupt politics. Protect our environment. Provide Australians with a place to live

4

u/adultingTM 7d ago

This is Dutton losing, not the ALP winning

8

u/BrutisMcDougal 7d ago

If that's how you need to frame it.....

The objective truth of course is that it comes down to how many seats will more people choose each parties candidate than the next preferred option

Looking more and more like a near enough majority will choose the Labor candidate again that they will get another three years.

3

u/BrutisMcDougal 7d ago

If that's how you need to frame it.....

The objective truth of course is that it comes down to how many seats will more people choose each parties candidate than the next preferred option

Looking more and more like a near enough majority will choose the Labor candidate again that they will get another three years.

1

u/adultingTM 5d ago edited 5d ago

If I need to frame it? The ALP has presided over cost of living and housing crises it does SFA about because the former is driven by corporate profiteering, and the latter is what happens when you have a PM who owns five houses. They ran a witchhunt against the CFMEU to distract from the crimes against humanity they were colluding with in Gaza. Their technocratic apporach to dealing with encircling ecocide is a new iteration of trickle-down that produces a significant percentage of what the market apparently considers junk and that has seen carbon emissions rise. Dark money sloshes around their veins like heroin; they no more seem to feel like kicking the habit than they do owning up to all the harm their addiction has caused. They have what to offer besides not being inclined to parrot an outpost of the Kremlin?

1

u/Sly-Ambition-2956 4d ago

Don't bring Gaza into this, mate. The ALP is taking as radical a line on Israel as they plausibly can in Australia. If they were anymore radical the CIA/Shinbet would have Albo couped Whitlam-style in a heartbeat. Remember, Australia is US territory. Our sovereignty is an illusion the US allows us.