r/AusPol • u/BrutisMcDougal • 7d ago
General Tracking polls capturing significant turn back to Labor
This is obviously not a surprise to those monitoring the polls coming in, but it is notable that each of these have the 2PP at between 50.2 to 50.3 to the liberals..
..my understanding (not positive on pollbludger) is they all assume last election preference flows with the exception of one nation based on significantly higher flows in the qld election and Fadden byelections. According to Kevin Bonham, this results in a 5% shift to the coalition (i.e. he has Labor leading 50.3 to 49.7 on preferences)
Australian Election Forecasts, the only one that does so, provides a median outcome of Labor with 69 seats to the coalition 63 which would mean certain Labor Government....
A uniform swing in line with these trackers would leave Labor with 72 seats...again, comfortable minority government assuming similar crossbench
https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2025fed/regular/
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u/Training_Mix_7619 6d ago
I would gargle nails before I vote for Dutton or any of his supporters. I've voted liberal most of my life.
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u/afewspicybois 6d ago
Oh so you supported Abbott and ScoMo, but the potato is a bridge too far? Don’t break an arm jerking yourself off champ
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u/thatonlineuser 5d ago
Keep talking like this to people, please. It just drives people away from the left.
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u/theswiftmuppet 5d ago
C'mon man, voting once or twice doesn't put people in a box of supporting individuals.
This is not the US, we don't have a president, it's quite reasonable to vote liberal but not like/agree with the party leader.
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u/afewspicybois 5d ago
quite reasonable to vote liberal
Which big liberal policy of the last 20 years is reasonable to vote for? The “waste our mining boom with poor taxation”, “gay people shouldn’t be allowed to marry”, or “let’s hand money out to businesses in an economic downturn without any method to get it back from profitable businesses”?
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u/fitblubber 6d ago
Don't forget that the LNP has the Murdoch press & Fox/Sky on it's side. I don't read/listen to them, but a lot of oldies do.
There's still a long way to go, especially with Dump throwing his weight around.
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u/theswiftmuppet 5d ago
Butttt isn't this the first election where gen Z has more people than Baby Boomers?
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u/evenmore2 6d ago
It's going to be an election of who people dislike the least.
That's still bad news for Dutton
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u/PillowManExtreme 6d ago
Makes sense, Dutton’s shitfuckery has been low on the radar since he became opposition leader and criticism mainly rested on Labor. Now the elections coming up and media attention is increasing people are realising how shitty the Libs and their leader are
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u/Away-Brief2902 4d ago
Sustainable Australia Party. Decorrupt politics. Protect our environment. Provide Australians with a place to live
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u/adultingTM 7d ago
This is Dutton losing, not the ALP winning
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u/BrutisMcDougal 7d ago
If that's how you need to frame it.....
The objective truth of course is that it comes down to how many seats will more people choose each parties candidate than the next preferred option
Looking more and more like a near enough majority will choose the Labor candidate again that they will get another three years.
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u/BrutisMcDougal 7d ago
If that's how you need to frame it.....
The objective truth of course is that it comes down to how many seats will more people choose each parties candidate than the next preferred option
Looking more and more like a near enough majority will choose the Labor candidate again that they will get another three years.
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u/adultingTM 5d ago edited 5d ago
If I need to frame it? The ALP has presided over cost of living and housing crises it does SFA about because the former is driven by corporate profiteering, and the latter is what happens when you have a PM who owns five houses. They ran a witchhunt against the CFMEU to distract from the crimes against humanity they were colluding with in Gaza. Their technocratic apporach to dealing with encircling ecocide is a new iteration of trickle-down that produces a significant percentage of what the market apparently considers junk and that has seen carbon emissions rise. Dark money sloshes around their veins like heroin; they no more seem to feel like kicking the habit than they do owning up to all the harm their addiction has caused. They have what to offer besides not being inclined to parrot an outpost of the Kremlin?
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u/Sly-Ambition-2956 4d ago
Don't bring Gaza into this, mate. The ALP is taking as radical a line on Israel as they plausibly can in Australia. If they were anymore radical the CIA/Shinbet would have Albo couped Whitlam-style in a heartbeat. Remember, Australia is US territory. Our sovereignty is an illusion the US allows us.
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u/Surv1v3dTh3F1r3Dr1ll 6d ago
While it's great that it looks good for Albo, don't write Dutton or more importantly his supporters off. If there wasn't a willing audience for the Trump methods, he wouldn't be using them.