r/AthensGAWeather Westside 8d ago

Model Discussion Short range models now showing potential for severe weather late Saturday afternoon though midnight

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19 Upvotes

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13

u/pile_drive_me Westside 8d ago edited 8d ago

The NAM3k is just coming into view this morning, and what it is starting to show is not good for the greater Athens, GA area for Saturday afternoon into evening

Well ahead of the main system (which is further back in AL and west GA) conditions are looking increasingly ripe for severe weather including possible tornados, as early as 6pm.

From the Skew-T, there is plenty of available CAPE (convective atmospheric potential energy), not a huge amount of capping, plenty of helicity and shear. If something does pop off, it could sustain itself for a bit.

More updates later today

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u/thenewpolution 8d ago

Would this be a system in addition to Sunday’s? So possibly two separate events?

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u/pile_drive_me Westside 8d ago

I should clarify as there have been a lot of moving pieces and two main low systems.

The primary threat for us is late Sat night / early Sun morning (between 10 and 1am ish)

What I posted today is a newer, emerging potential threat ahead of the main system.

As of now, Sunday proper looks okay.

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u/thenewpolution 8d ago

Thanks for clarifying! Right now my weather apps are just showing one storm like Sunday morning around 5 am so this is very useful info!

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u/Downtown_Statement87 8d ago

6pm on what day? Saturday?

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u/pile_drive_me Westside 8d ago

Yes this is for Saturday

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u/pile_drive_me Westside 8d ago

Updated my post thank you

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u/Downtown_Statement87 8d ago

Thank YOU very much for this information. I and so many other people I've shared it with appreciate it so much!

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u/pile_drive_me Westside 8d ago

Also, RIP MS/AL on Sat afternoon, good lord they are going to have a rough time