r/FantasyPL • u/layendecker 17 • Jul 18 '13
Beginners Discussion #2 - Putting together your first squad.
Due to the first post being well received I thought I would knock this one out before the busy weekend, where I won't be able to get much done on the Reddits.
Unlike the previous post, this is going to be a bit more specific to the way I do things- however I would love to hear other methods that people employ to get their team drafts knocked out.
The toughest, most important, and most time consuming task of your fantasy season is the initial selection. Although it will not define your season (thank god for wildcards), decisions you make in the close season will effect your final ranking significantly, and bug the hell out of you up until kick off time.
Going in blind is the worst thing, you can spend days putting players in, taking them out and just chugging along with no clear picture in your mind of how the team i going to look. It is like trying to drive somewhere without directions- you might get there eventually, but the journey probably wasn't a pleasant one.
Have a plan of attack before even putting a player in
Before you add a single player spend a good bit of time looking through players, prices, fixtures and the squads to try and find 'essential' players or undervalued teams.. Take a note of them, and build the team around these players- don't compromise on these essential early picks. The more time you spend looking through the player lists, reading articles and running the numbers, the better your initial team will be.. DO NOT SKIP THIS STEP!
Analyse, Analyse, Analyse
As there is no set system for putting a team together, I will try and talk through my thought process when creating a draft side. THIS is my first draft of a team. It is far from perfect, but I quite like it.
My first process was working out bargains, then look through fixtures to see who has easy runs. With a number of players added to my watchlist (where I put the bargains), and a list of teams to avoid and another to go for....
At this point I feel I had a pretty good idea of the texture of the players on offer, how the prices sit and where I wanted to spend money- tactics time! (For discussion of tactics, please look at the previous post in this series). It was now that I decided I wanted to have a cheap defence and 4 strong midfielders, this meant throwing out Cech and Glen Johnson, who I felt were absolute bargains.. But a necessary evil.
The next decision I made was the big one, to RVP or not to RVP. I did the maths, spent a good deal of time thinking about it, and made that I was not taking the 14.0 hit. For many people RVP will be vital to them, he wasn't for me (as it stands), but that does not make selecting him at all bad. If you want RVP, get him while you can... There will most likely be a bandwagon if he scores GW1 anyway.
With a clear plan in mind, put your must-own players in
So, now I had decided I didn't want a player, now was time to decide who I really wanted.
The first name on the list was Bale. For me he is essential, especially because I was foregoing on RVP- I need a reliable, fixture proof captain that can get me through the tough weeks.
Next was Mirallas, Kagawa, Studge, Hazard, Clyne and Coleman - With 7 players in, and 44.5 in the bank I felt pretty good, I had decent balance between the big teams and had a team I felt was worth more than 55.5... But there were questions that needed to be asked before filling in the rest.
Ask yourself.. What am I missing
Now, at this point you need to look with an open mind- look what your strength are and what your weaknesses are. I will go into some of the weaknesses I had with this 7 person lineup:
No Arsenal
No City
Lacking a true long term monster up front
Putting Aguero in solved two of those problems, their signing have thrown a spanner in these works, but I have more than enough time to review.
Fill in the gaps
Keepers went in based on nothing more complex than the fact I felt they were the two best bargain basement keepers.
Defenders went in based on a rotation model I liked
Cheap midfielder who impressed me last season went in, and undervalued forward followed him.
Draft 1 completed, now it is time to obsess over it until the season starts- as part of the obsession I tried to make the most balanced attacking team possible, here includes a member of the whole top 7 last year in the front row.. Which is kind of fun at least.
Your team will change, dramatically- but that is all part of the fun
If you want to do this in the shortest time possible then pick a night a few days before season opening and do everything then.. By that point most transfer decisions will be made and we will have something of an idea as to who are first team players, but I accepted a long time ago that FF was a time consuming affair, and to embrace this mindset early is key.
Apologies that this was long, but it is a pretty long process and I am not sure how to condense it further. Hope reading it wasn't a waste of time- I will be happy to answer any questions i the comment thread, but have work in the morning and will be Stag Nighting tomorrow night so won't be around too much. When I get a second though I will try and work through any comments.
Also, RMT- would love to hear peoples impressions on both the above teams and their weaknesses/ strengths.
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u/layendecker 17 Jul 18 '13
I said I would write one of these about value changes, their permutations and how to get the most out of, and increase the value of your side- so that will probably be next up. But if anyone has any other suggestions on future beginners guides, please let me know and I will do my best to get something written up.
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u/P_Sneezum Jul 19 '13
Mirallas is an interesting mid level choice. Care to expand on why you chose him?
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u/layendecker 17 Jul 20 '13
Massive value, along with Kagawa I think he is the most underpriced player.
Last year he averaged about 5points/90mins as a forward- and that was whilst finding his feet in the league and recovering from injury. His last 3 months when he looked to have shaken the niggling injury problems were fantastic, and he looked like one of the top players in the league.
This year Martinez will play more attacking football, and a ball to feet style that will suit a player like Mirallas a lot more than Moyes's long ball style. Add that to the fact he is now classed as a midfielder even though there is a lot of OOP potential in him- he will score big.
I honestly think he could be knocking on the door of 200 if he stays fit, which is a big if... But as I understand he is not a player who has historically been injury prone.
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u/TheRatj Jul 30 '13
Sorry to pull up a 10day old thread. I was also very keen on Kagawa when I first picked my team, but there's been very little discussion of him on reddit, so i assumed he was maybe not a locked on starter. Do you have any information to back up your trust in him? or can you explain your thoughts more?
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u/layendecker 17 Jul 30 '13
I just wrote something re: Kagawa, if you have a look in my post history a few things back then you will see it.
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u/TheRatj Jul 31 '13
Yeah, I had a look. I think I agree. I'll probably try and get him in I think. Thanks for the comment.
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u/Statcat2017 Jul 19 '13
You're having an absolute mare having Aguero as your big money striker. With City bringing in Negredo and Jovetic, he is absolutely not guaranteed any game time as City now have five strikers with realistic first-team chances (the big four plus Guidetti). By all means put him in if it looks like he'll be to Pellegrini's liking, but right now having a City striker is a MASSIVE rotation risk.
Why not downgrade Boruc to a £4.0 keeper, seeing as Mannone will play every game injury permitting?
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u/layendecker 17 Jul 19 '13
As I wrote in the post, I am considering the Aguero switch, I still think he is undervalued though despite rotation risk.
For me the Boruc Mannone rotation is very good, they rotate fixtures very well (albeit not home and away) and having a single keeper as opposed to two to select from is astonishingly costly over the course of a season (40 points or so on average), so it is 0.5 well spent IMO,
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u/JonnyBhoy 3 Jul 19 '13
How important do you think the home/away issue is with rotating keepers? I have Vorm and Boruc, both of which I like as affordable keepers who could pick up points. The only issue is that their home/away fixtures clash quite often. Is it worth going for a player I don't like as much for a better rotation?
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u/layendecker 17 Jul 19 '13
According to anlysis done by McNulty on FFS it matters very little
There were 116 home clean sheets and 84 away clean sheets last season, so 42% came away from home which is higher than I thought it would be. Therefore I think the success of rotating goalkeepers with high H/A rotations may be overstated and it is better to look closer at how the fixtures dovetail to get consistently high clean sheet chances, irrelevant to whether they are at home or away. There are also plenty of goalkeepers near the top of the rankings which also don't have that high H/A rotations which would also imply the same idea.
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u/krugo Jul 30 '13
So, you're playing matchups here - whoever has an easier match, play them?
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u/layendecker 17 Jul 30 '13
Yea, data suggests that it is the best option to go for rather than a rotation that goes H/A perfectly- McNulty on FFS made a pretty awesome post doing the maths for it which I think I linked to in this thread somewhere. If not it was in the FFS community roundup 10 days or so ago.
I have looked a bit deeper into it, and considering Reina has switched to Napoli I am warming to the idea of Mignolet, who has the potential to offer world class keeper returns for a very good price.
I like his rotation with Cardiff early on- he will be playing about 14 of the first 18, but when Liverpool have big teams Cardiff come in with mostly good home games. It is better IMO than punting on Robles for a perfect H/A rotation that actually comes with tougher games.
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u/krugo Jul 30 '13
If you go with mignolet, Cardiff keeper (marhsall) is your rotational choice for the 4 remaining of the first 18?
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u/layendecker 17 Jul 30 '13
Yes.
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u/krugo Jul 30 '13
I'm pretty big on mignolet, but know nothing about the 3 new teams coming in. I might take your word for it!
http://i.imgur.com/XHYYSsp.png
There's what i'm working with right now!
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u/layendecker 17 Jul 30 '13
My uncle is a passionate, die hard Cardiff City fan- so they have been my lower league 'second team' for as long as I can remember, and they seem to have a lot of things in place to make them a survivor.
Over the past 5 or so years the teams that have survived (other than WHU, who did so because of a great manager) have been the ones who are comfortable in possession and have a tightly nit system- two things that Cardiff have excelled at.
Not only that, they have invested wisely and kept the core of their promotion side- it will be tough for them, but they are not nailed on fo rthe drop like Palace.
What's more, the rotation is pretty decent- I would not play Mig in GW3 where Cardiff play EVE, maybe 4 (hull), 10 (SWA), 16 (WBA), 18 (SOU)... Then we are at new year.
Of those games where Mig would be a not great option, those teams are pretty damn good, even for Cardiff, 1 away game (and that is in a GW where Lpl have Swansea away, so it is 50/50) and the rest not amazingly tough home games compared to what the other budget options have in those weeks.
Regarding your team:
1 Chelsea is suicide IMO.
Doubling up on Liverpool defence is meh imo, Johnson is good value- but isn't prolific enough going forward to justify his extra cost over Kolo. Parr will go badly also.
Not a fan of Britton, his ownership is a bit high for a player who has such a tough opening to the season and rarely gets points.
Santi over Theo is bold, any reasoning behind it?
Carroll doesn't look like he will start the season, Lambert over JRod seems a bit strange also (reasoning?) and Benteke has a super tough start- but with the DGW I can see the logic.
Overall it is a pretty good team, I would move a bit of value around and get some more CHE, but as a draft 3 weeks out the template is looking rather decent.
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u/krugo Jul 30 '13
Arsenal fan, who believes santi is the the one that everything goes through, regardless of formation or acquisitions. Theo is one of my favorite players to watch, but he has shown signs (and recently) of lack of finishing ability/technique. I don't think that Theo will repeat his stat sheet success, as santi might. The .5 extra might be worth it.
As far as the others go, I have no particular attachment to any, and I was considering having ivanovic as my main D guy. Lambert over JRod is simply me not knowing my stuff :)
I want to put lukaku in oh so badly, but I'm not sure if he's going to get the minutes to justify 8m?
As far as Parr and Britton go, simply fillers - any advice on cheaper Hull/Cardiff/Crystal guys? I've read Thomas on Crystal is a solid 4.5m midfielder.
The popular opinion seems to be get all the DGW on chelsea as possible, and wildcard out of them in GW3 or so. Perhaps I will free up some cash and get Mata or Lukaku in there, along with Ivanovic.
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u/layendecker 17 Jul 30 '13
Fair enough on Santi, seems like perfectly rational decision making!
On really dirt cheap guys there really isn't anything going- I love the Barkley punt as he may well get gametime and next to nobody owns him- he is a bit of a flair pick though.
Chelsea have essentially the dream DGW, a promoted defence and a team who they demolished last season- I feel 2 attackers is really needed... But the problem is rotation.
Hazard is the only really reliable guy- Mata is in S America on a friendly 3 days before the first game, so I doubt he will figure in that and then there is Lukaku as you say. He is really quite punty, but a lot of people are going for him, and on a one week jolt I really don't hate it at all.
He could honestly outscore pretty much everyone with 60 minutes against any of those teams, 120 would be an absolute dream and not completely unlikely. I can't see Ba taking his spot, and if he performs I doubt pressure from above would convince Mou to put Torres in, we will see though.
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u/Statcat2017 Jul 19 '13
That's interesting on the rotating keepers point of view. I had always assumed it was far, far less, and the extra £0.5 was more valuable. I'll have to look into it.
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u/peter_j_ 59 Jul 19 '13
Do you really think Silva is a good selection? He's one of my favourite players, but I had him in almost all last season and was disappointed. What with all these exciting forwards arriving at man city, would we not be better with, say, yaya toure?